BJP Faces Upset in Safe Bihar Constituency Amid Bypoll Counting
Today, counting in the Bankipur bypoll shows the BJP trailing in one of its safest historical strongholds as the Jan Suraaj Party takes the lead.
The Indian Express published an analysis examining the implications of recent bypoll results, arguing that the outcomes represent a setback for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) while simultaneously failing to provide a clear boost for the Opposition. The article assesses the electoral landscape following these contests, suggesting the results reflect specific challenges for the ruling party without translating into a definitive advantage for its rivals.
Counting trends for three Assembly bypolls across as many states are firming up, and the Bharatiya Janata Party appears set to lose two of them. The most significant blow is unfolding in Bankipur, a seat in Patna that the BJP has held continuously since it was carved out in 2008 and where the party has never secured less than 59 percent of the total vote (Indian Express).
After 22 rounds of counting, with 10 rounds remaining, Prashant Kishor of the Jan Suraaj Party is leading by over 12,000 votes. Kishor has held the lead in every round so far and is projected to win by a decisive margin, capturing over 48 percent of the vote share counted to date (Indian Express). The BJP’s vote share, which stood at over 62 percent in the 2025 state polls, has dropped to approximately 34 percent. The Rashtriya Janata Dal trails in a distant third, consistent with its historical weakness in the constituency (Indian Express).
The result arrives barely nine months after the National Democratic Alliance swept the Bihar Assembly elections, winning 202 out of 243 seats. Bankipur had been one of the BJP’s safest strongholds, won four consecutive times by Nitin Nabin. Caste and community estimates maintained by political players in Bihar indicate an exceptionally high "upper caste" population of roughly 37 percent in the seat—comprising Kayasthas (14 percent), Bhumihars (8 percent), Brahmins (8 percent), and Rajputs (7 percent)—excluding Baniyas, who are classified as OBC in Bihar but fall in the general category elsewhere (Indian Express).
According to a Bihar official speaking to The Indian Express, two local factors proved decisive. The BJP’s candidate, a last-minute replacement, was perceived as lacking the profile to serve as MLA. Additionally, there is reported discontent among "upper castes" over the BJP’s selection of Samrat Chaudhary, a Kushwaha, as Chief Minister in the post-Nitish Kumar era (Indian Express).
This dynamic places the BJP in a quandary. The trends suggest "upper castes" are signalling openness to an alternative—though not yet the RJD—unless their demands are addressed. However, any attempt to accommodate those demands risks eroding the party’s OBC and EBC vote base in the absence of Nitish Kumar, who previously acted as the glue between these disparate social groups (Indian Express). The party can take limited comfort that the shift has favoured Kishor, a Brahmin with no organisational infrastructure as yet, rather than its principal rival. The official cautioned, however, that a single bypoll may not constitute a definitive trend.
Indian Express