Russia proposes rail route to India to bypass maritime choke points

Yesterday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin proposed exploring a railway route connecting Russia to India via Central and South Asia, aiming to reduce reliance on maritime corridors vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. The suggestion, reported by The Indian Express, emphasizes alternative overland pathways amid ongoing instability in West Asia, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil and gas transit point. Khusnullin highlighted the potential for rail lines passing through Turkmenistan, Iran, and Afghanistan to establish a direct link to the Indian Ocean, offering Russia a strategic bypass to volatile sea routes (Indian Express).

The proposal surfaces as Moscow seeks to diversify its trade and energy export channels. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil flows, has faced heightened risks due to regional conflicts, including attacks on tankers and sanctions-related bottlenecks. Russia’s state news agencies quoted Khusnullin as stating that overland routes could mitigate such vulnerabilities, though he did not specify timelines or funding mechanisms for the project (Indian Express). Indian officials have not publicly commented on the plan, but analysts note that New Delhi has previously engaged in discussions about multimodal transit corridors with Central Asian nations, including the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which aims to boost trade between India, Russia, and Iran.

Geopolitically, the railway could reshape regional alliances. If realized, it would provide Russia a direct overland pathway to access Indian markets and the Indian Ocean, potentially countering its isolation from Western sanctions and reducing its dependence on Chinese-controlled logistics networks. For India, the route might offer improved connectivity to Central Asia while balancing its strategic partnerships between Russia and other global powers. However, the proposal’s feasibility hinges on resolving political and infrastructural challenges, including transit agreements with Iran and Afghanistan, the latter of which remains unstable under Taliban rule. Turkmenistan, a key potential transit state, has maintained a neutral foreign policy, complicating negotiations (Google News India).

The initiative also raises questions about the economic viability of rail transport compared to maritime shipping. Freight costs via land routes are typically higher, and the proposed corridor would require significant investment in infrastructure, including bridges, tunnels, and border crossings. Analysts suggest that while the railway could expedite the movement of high-value goods, it may not fully replace sea routes for bulk commodities like oil and grain. Meanwhile, environmental concerns, such as the impact of construction on ecologically sensitive regions in Central Asia, remain unaddressed (firstpost).

As of now, no concrete steps toward the project’s implementation have been announced. Russian and Indian officials are expected to discuss the proposal during upcoming bilateral meetings, though details remain scarce. The plan’s success will likely depend on aligning the interests of multiple stakeholders, securing funding, and navigating the complex security landscape of Eurasia. For now, the idea remains a tentative step toward reimagining Afro-Eurasian connectivity in an era of fragmented global trade.